CONGRESSIONAL UPDATE:

Evenly Divided Nation Reflected in Election; Stalemate or Bi-partisan Congress Up For Grabs

By Hal Gross

As this is written on December 8, 2000, about a month has passed since the Presidential election without the winner being finally determined. One current and two potential Florida supreme court decisions, all subject to possible review by the United States Supreme Court., are pending. Meanwhile, the Republican-controlled Florida legislature has opened an 11-day special session to get involved, and ultimately, the narrowly divided U.S. Congress will have its say. As much of a "political junkie as I am, I'm about ready to say "enough already."

The narrow division between Republicans and Democrats is also reflected in both houses of the Congress. In the Senate, Democrat Maria Cantwell's apparent 2000-vote victory over Republican incumbent Slade Gorton brings the Senate to a 50-50 split, subject to the resolution of the Presidential race. If the Gore-Lieberman ticket wins, Senator Joe Lieberman
(D-CT) will resign his Senate seat and become Vice President-elect. As Vice President, he will be empowered to vote to break all ties, but Connecticut Governor John Rowland, a Republican, can be expected to appoint a Republican to the vacated Senate seat, which would give the Republicans a 51-49 majority. Of course, if Bush wins the presidency, Lieberman will remain a Senator in a 50-50 Senate, but Dick Cheney would vote to break all Senate ties.

Meanwhile, two other Senators, 96-year-old Strom Thurmond (R-SC) and Jesse Helms (R-NC) are in increasingly frail health, and facing likely imminent retirement. Both North and South Carolina presently have Democratic Governors, who would be expected to appoint Democrats to the vacated Senate seats, in the event of the death, retirement, or disability of the two Republican conservatives.

In the House of Representatives, where different rules apply, the 107th Congress will open with 221 Republicans, 211 Democrats, two independents, and one vacancy, attributable to today's death of Democrat Julian Dixon (D-CA). California Governor Gray Davis, a Democrat, will almost certainly appoint another Democrat to replace Dixon. The two independents are Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who almost always votes with the Democrats, and Virgil Goode (I-VA), who usually votes with the Republicans. Thus, the Republicans will maintain a nine-vote margin in the House. Put another way, a shift of only five votes in the usually unruly House will change the outcome on any given vote.

The leadership of both parties in the Congress is talking as if they will be less partisan this session, for the good of the nation, but this remains to be seen. House Republican whip Tom Delay (R-TX), who is currently negotiating with the Clinton White House over fiscal 2001 Appropriations, is again threatening to shut the government down and blame the Democrats.

The even division of the two houses gives special leverage to the moderates of both parties, who, with only a handful of votes can unite to affect a change in the outcome of a vote. While the new Members of Congress of both parties are likely to be willing to accept bi-partisan leadership, it remains to be seen whether the hard core partisans who have divided the Congress for the past several sessions can be brought into the fold, or be simply
overridden.

In the Senate, if the 50-50 split holds, there will be negotiations which could produce split Republican-Democratic chairmanships of Committees, or other bi-partisan arrangements. In a body as collegial as the Senate generally is, it is hard to imagine an endless series of 50-50 votes, resolved by the intervention of the Vice President. 

Despite being constantly tested, the resiliency of our Constitution has once again been proven. There will be many disgruntled voters, however the election contests are resolved. But still there are no tanks or guns in our streets.

Stay tuned: the next series of partisan battles will be over redistricting Congressional seats.

This is the last column I will write prior to my retirement. To all NAATS members I say goodbye, good luck and it's been good knowing you.

#